DESIGNED FOR

Evaluation engineers, analysts, managers, planners, and economists. Participants are expected to know the concepts in the Petroleum Risks and Decision Analysis course or have similar substantial background. Visit http://www.maxvalue.com/prereq.htm for a list of expected pre-course competencies.

YOU WILL LEARN HOW TO

• Develop more-advanced decision models, including optimization and value of imperfect information analyses

• Use decision analysis software for Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree analysis

• Model portfolio problems such as for evaluating plays, wells in a field, and multi-pay drilling locations

• Express and apply risk policy as a utility function

ABOUT THE COURSE

Quality forecasts and evaluations depend upon well-designed project models based upon clear decision policy, sound professional judgments, and a good decision process. Participants learn the methods and practice of building good evaluation models.

This course is intended for professionals involved with constructing project evaluation and other forecasting and assessment models. The familiar MS Excel spreadsheet is the platform project and risk assessment models. Add-in software provides Monte Carlo and decision tree capabilities. The emphasis is on the evaluation concepts and techniques, rather than particular software programs.

Intermediate Excel spreadsheet competence (especially IF statements) in an MS Windows environment is required. This fast-paced course is recommended for those with strong English listening skills.

One personal computer is supplied, at added cost, for every two participants.

COURSE CONTENT

• Project Modeling: influence diagrams, control and feedback concepts, free cash flow, sensitivity analysis, documentation and good modeling practices

• Monte Carlo Simulation: prospect risking and play, modeling and optimizing portfolios, competitive bidding, added control and flexibility, stopping rules, ways to model correlation

• Decision Tree Analysis: value of information, options, sensitivity analysis solving with utility

• Decision Policy: PV discount rate and risk (CAPM and portfolio theory), portfolio optimization, efficient frontiers, multi-criteria decisions, HSE, market value discount factor, risk policy as a utility function, insurance and hedging, optimizing working interests

• Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects: project activity networks, critical chain, project risk management

• Implementation: presentation formats, balanced scorecards with shareholder value creation forecast, team processes, alternative and emerging evaluation technologies