Judgments and Biases Fundamentals

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About

This eLearning course introduces judgments and biases. This course delves into the complexities of decision-making, cognitive biases, and advanced forecasting methods.

Target Audience

Personnel working on development projects in the petroleum industry's upstream, midstream, downstream, and transportation segments. This includes project managers, project engineers, facility engineers, production and operations engineers, well site supervisors, project control representatives, and supply chain personnel.

You Will Learn

You will learn how to:

  • Describe intuition and its strengths and weaknesses in decision-making

  • Name the several motivational biases the most important of the many cognitive biases

  • Describe the Delphi process tool for anonymous forecasting and estimation

  • Plan an elicitation interview to elicit an assessment from one or multiple SMEs

  • Use calibration exercises for improving judgment

  • Explain some of the causes of correlation and ways to discover this from data

  • Explain how to calculate deterministic and stochastic variances to explain the difference between forecast and actual values

  • Describe two or more auction types

  • Describe tail estimate, winner’s curse, and optimizer’s curse biases