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Advanced Decision Analysis with Portfolio and Project Modeling - ADA

Discipline: Petroleum Business
Level: Specialized
Instructors who teach this course:
  • Mr. Tim Nieman
    Mr. Tim Nieman
    X
    Mr. Nieman has 30 years of experience as a risk and decision analyst, economist and petroleum scientist. His professional experience includes 20 years in leading and conducting projects of various sizes and scopes involving the application of decision and risk analysis methodologies in the energy and environmental sectors, and 10 years as a practicing petroleum geophysicist. His background includes work in decision analysis, risk analysis, business modeling, financial forecasting, strategic planning, R&D portfolio management, software development, geology, and geophysics. Mr. Nieman has also taught numerous training seminars in decision analysis, economics and quantitative modeling. He has a BS in geology and an MS in geophysics from Michigan State University, and an MBA from Rice University.

    Courses:

  • Mr. John Schuyler
    Mr. John Schuyler
    X
    MR. JOHN SCHUYLER, CAM, CCE, CMA, CMC, CPIM, PMP and PE, is a decision analyst, evaluation engineer, and investor. He founded his consulting practice, Decision Precision, in 1988. He has over 37 years of experience in analysis, consulting, training and management, primarily in the energy industry. His focus has been in feasibility analysis, appraisals, corporate planning, and evaluation software. He has presented over 290 courses in 34 countries since 1989. He was vice president and petroleum engineer with Security Pacific National Bank, planning and evaluation analyst at Cities Service Oil Co., manager of business systems for Cities Service's Petrochemicals Division, and senior management consultant with a national accounting firm. He is a member of eight professional organizations and is an author and speaker on modern analysis practices. He is the revision author of Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 2nd Ed., author of Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 2nd Ed., and has written over 40 articles, papers and handbook chapters. He received BS and MS degrees in mineral-engineering physics from the Colorado School of Mines and an MBA from the University of Colorado. His website is www.maxvalue.com.

    Courses:



  • About the course
  • Designed For
  • You will learn
  • Course Content
About the course
Quality forecasts and evaluations depend upon well-designed project and portfolio models that are based upon clear decision policy, sound professional judgments, and a good decision process. In this course participants learn to build good models. We use the familiar Microsoft Excel spreadsheet as the platform for project and risk assessment models. Add-in software provides Monte Carlo and decision tree capabilities. The course emphasis is on the evaluation concepts and techniques, rather than particular software programs.
Designed For
Evaluation engineers, analysts, managers, planners, and economists. This course is intended for professionals involved with developing project evaluation, portfolio, and other forecasting and assessment models. Prior background in decision analysis is expected. Before registering, please visit http://www.decisionapplications.com/ada-pre-read/ to review a course prerequisites list and to take a short self-assessment quiz. You may login using 'ada' (no quotes) as the password.
You will learn
How To:
  • Frame, build, and evaluate decision models and extract key insights
  • Apply the exponential utility function for risk policy
  • Design investment portfolio optimization models that include constraints, requirements, and typical interrelationships between projects
  • Use decision tree software for value of imperfect information analysis
  • Use Monte Carlo simulation software with optimization
  • Develop quality Excel models for projects and portfolios
Course Content
  • Decision Modeling: application of DA process for modeling; influence diagrams; sensitivity analysis; good modeling practices; real options overview
  • Monte Carlo Simulation: multi-pay prospect risking (similar to play analysis); calculating probabilities and distributions with simulation; modeling and optimizing investment portfolios; valuing added control and flexibility; stopping rules; ways to model correlation
  • Decision Tree Analysis: value of information review; sensitivity analysis; solving with utility for risk aversion
  • Decision Policy: portfolio optimization to maximize value; efficient frontiers; multi-criteria decisions; risk policy as a utility function; expected utility and certain equivalent; insurance and hedging; optimizing working interests
  • Implementation: eliciting a decision maker's or organization's preferences for trade-offs among objectives, time value, and risk attitude; decision analysis presentation agendas and formats; special topics from the instructor's own research and experience
Related courses
Petroleum Project Management: Principles and Practices - PPM
Petroleum Risk and Decision Analysis - PRD
Portfolio Modeling and Management - PMM
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Advanced Decision Analysis with Portfolio and Project Modeling - ADA
Discipline: Petroleum Business
Level: Specialized
Duration: 5 days
Instructor(s): Tim Nieman, John Schuyler
Quality forecasts and evaluations depend upon well-designed project and portfolio models that are based upon clear decision policy, sound professional judgments, and a good decision process. In this course participants learn to build good models. We use the familiar Microsoft Excel spreadsheet as the platform for project and risk assessment models. Add-in software provides Monte Carlo and decision tree capabilities. The course emphasis is on the evaluation concepts and techniques, rather than particular software programs.
Designed For:
Evaluation engineers, analysts, managers, planners, and economists. This course is intended for professionals involved with developing project evaluation, portfolio, and other forecasting and assessment models. Prior background in decision analysis is expected. Before registering, please visit http://www.decisionapplications.com/ada-pre-read/ to review a course prerequisites list and to take a short self-assessment quiz. You may login using 'ada' (no quotes) as the password.
You Will Learn:
How To:
  • Frame, build, and evaluate decision models and extract key insights
  • Apply the exponential utility function for risk policy
  • Design investment portfolio optimization models that include constraints, requirements, and typical interrelationships between projects
  • Use decision tree software for value of imperfect information analysis
  • Use Monte Carlo simulation software with optimization
  • Develop quality Excel models for projects and portfolios
Course Content:
  • Decision Modeling: application of DA process for modeling; influence diagrams; sensitivity analysis; good modeling practices; real options overview
  • Monte Carlo Simulation: multi-pay prospect risking (similar to play analysis); calculating probabilities and distributions with simulation; modeling and optimizing investment portfolios; valuing added control and flexibility; stopping rules; ways to model correlation
  • Decision Tree Analysis: value of information review; sensitivity analysis; solving with utility for risk aversion
  • Decision Policy: portfolio optimization to maximize value; efficient frontiers; multi-criteria decisions; risk policy as a utility function; expected utility and certain equivalent; insurance and hedging; optimizing working interests
  • Implementation: eliciting a decision maker's or organization's preferences for trade-offs among objectives, time value, and risk attitude; decision analysis presentation agendas and formats; special topics from the instructor's own research and experience
Instructors:

Mr. Nieman has 30 years of experience as a risk and decision analyst, economist and petroleum scientist. His professional experience includes 20 years in leading and conducting projects of various sizes and scopes involving the application of decision and risk analysis methodologies in the energy and environmental sectors, and 10 years as a practicing petroleum geophysicist. His background includes work in decision analysis, risk analysis, business modeling, financial forecasting, strategic planning, R&D portfolio management, software development, geology, and geophysics. Mr. Nieman has also taught numerous training seminars in decision analysis, economics and quantitative modeling. He has a BS in geology and an MS in geophysics from Michigan State University, and an MBA from Rice University.

MR. JOHN SCHUYLER, CAM, CCE, CMA, CMC, CPIM, PMP and PE, is a decision analyst, evaluation engineer, and investor. He founded his consulting practice, Decision Precision, in 1988. He has over 37 years of experience in analysis, consulting, training and management, primarily in the energy industry. His focus has been in feasibility analysis, appraisals, corporate planning, and evaluation software. He has presented over 290 courses in 34 countries since 1989. He was vice president and petroleum engineer with Security Pacific National Bank, planning and evaluation analyst at Cities Service Oil Co., manager of business systems for Cities Service's Petrochemicals Division, and senior management consultant with a national accounting firm. He is a member of eight professional organizations and is an author and speaker on modern analysis practices. He is the revision author of Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 2nd Ed., author of Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 2nd Ed., and has written over 40 articles, papers and handbook chapters. He received BS and MS degrees in mineral-engineering physics from the Colorado School of Mines and an MBA from the University of Colorado. His website is www.maxvalue.com.


In-House Course Presentations
All courses are available for in-house presentation to individual organizations. In-house courses may be structured the same as the public versions or tailored to meet your requirements. Special courses on virtually any petroleum-related subject can be arranged specifically for in-house presentation. For further information, contact our In-House Training Coordinator at one of the numbers listed below.
Telephone 1- 832 426 1234
Facsimile 1- 832 426 1244
E-Mail inhouse@petroskills.com

Public Course Presentations
How to contact PetroSkills:
1-800-821-5933 toll-free in North America or
Telephone 1-918-828-2500
Facsimile 1-918-828-2580
E-Mail registrations@petroskills.com
Internet www.petroskills.com
Address P.O. Box 35448, Tulsa, Oklahoma 74153-0448, U.S.A