Petroleum Risk and Decision Analysis - PRD
Discipline: Petroleum Business
Duration: 5 days
Instructor(s): Tim Nieman, John Schuyler
Good technical and business decisions are based on competent analysis of project costs, benefits and risks. Participants learn the decision analysis process and foundation concepts so they can actively participate in multi-discipline evaluation teams. The focus is on designing and solving decision models. About half the problems relate to exploration. The methods apply to R&D, risk management, and all capital investment decisions. Probability distributions express professional judgments about risks and uncertainties and are carried through the calculations. Decision tree and influence diagrams provide clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. Monte Carlo simulation is experienced in detail in a hand-calculation exercise. Project modeling fundamentals and basic probability concepts provide the foundation for the calculations. The mathematics is straightforward and mostly involves only common algebra. The emphasis is on practical techniques for immediate application. This is a fast-paced course and recommended for those with strong English listening skills. This course is intended as the prerequisite for the Advanced Decision Analysis with Portfolio and Project Modeling course.
Geologists, engineers, geophysicists, managers, team leaders, economists, and planners.
You Will Learn:
- Describe the elements of the decision analysis process and the respective roles of management and the analysis team
- Express and interpret judgments about risks and uncertainties as probability distributions and popular statistics
- Represent discrete risk events in Venn diagrams, probability trees, and joint probability tables
- Solve for expected values with decision trees, payoff tables, and Monte Carlo simulation (hand calculations)
- Craft and solve decision models
- Evaluate investment and design alternatives with decision tree analysis
- Develop and solve decision trees for value of information (VOI) problems
- Decision Tree Analysis: decision models, value of information (a key problem type emphasized in the course), flexibility and control, project threats and opportunities
- Monte Carlo Simulation: Latin hypercube sampling, portfolio problems, optimization, advantages and limitations
- Decision Criteria and Policy: value measures, multiple objectives, HSE, capital constraint, risk aversion
- Modeling the Decision: influence diagrams, sensitivity analysis, modeling correlations
- Basic Probability and Statistics: four fundamental rules including Bayes' rule (the easy way), calibration and eliciting judgments, choosing distribution types, common misconceptions about probability
- Expected Value Concept: foundation for decision policy, features, pitfalls to avoid
- Implementing Decision Analysis: problem framing, guidelines for good analysis practice, team analyses, computer tools (discussion and demonstrations), mitigating risks
- Evaluating a multi-pay prospect (team exercise)
MR. TIM NIEMAN has 30 years of experience as a risk and decision analyst, economist and petroleum scientist. His professional experience includes 20 years in leading and conducting projects of various sizes and scopes involving the application of decision and risk analysis methodologies in the energy and environmental sectors, and 10 years as a practicing petroleum geophysicist. His background includes work in decision analysis, risk analysis, business modeling, financial forecasting, strategic planning, R&D portfolio management, software development, geology, and geophysics. Mr. Nieman has also taught numerous training seminars in decision analysis, economics and quantitative modeling. He has a BS in geology and an MS in geophysics from Michigan State University, and an MBA from Rice University.
MR. JOHN SCHUYLER, CAM, CCE, CMA, CMC, CPIM, PMP and PE, is a decision analyst, evaluation engineer, and investor. He founded his consulting practice, Decision Precision, in 1988. He has over 37 years of experience in analysis, consulting, training and management, primarily in the energy industry. His focus has been in feasibility analysis, appraisals, corporate planning, and evaluation software. He has presented over 290 courses in 34 countries since 1989. He was vice president and petroleum engineer with Security Pacific National Bank, planning and evaluation analyst at Cities Service Oil Co., manager of business systems for Cities Service's Petrochemicals Division, and senior management consultant with a national accounting firm. He is a member of eight professional organizations and is an author and speaker on modern analysis practices. He is the revision author of Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 2nd Ed., author of Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 2nd Ed., and has written over 40 articles, papers and handbook chapters. He received BS and MS degrees in mineral-engineering physics from the Colorado School of Mines and an MBA from the University of Colorado. His website is www.maxvalue.com.
In-House Course Presentations
All courses are available for in-house presentation to individual organizations. In-house courses may be structured the same as the public versions or tailored to meet your requirements. Special courses on virtually any petroleum-related subject can be arranged specifically for in-house presentation. For further information, contact our In-House Training Coordinator at one of the
numbers listed below.
Telephone 1- 832 426 1234
Facsimile 1- 832 426 1244
Public Course Presentations
How to contact PetroSkills:
1-800-821-5933 toll-free in North America or
Address P.O. Box 35448, Tulsa, Oklahoma 74153-0448, U.S.A